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If Russia Wins: A Scenario is a book by Carlo Masala. It is described as an international bestseller and is translated from the German by Olena Ebel and Ruth Ahmedzai Kemp.
The book sets out a scenario beginning in March 2028, when Russian troops capture the Estonian town of Narva and the island of Hiiumaa in the Baltic Sea. It describes this as following victory in Ukraine and presents it as the start of a long-discussed move into the Baltic states.
Against a backdrop of Europe’s slow rearmament and weakened military and intelligence capabilities, it raises questions about whether NATO’s Article 5 would apply, what the alliance might decide, and whether the situation could escalate to nuclear war. Masala explores these issues and frames them as a stark illustration of what is at stake in Ukraine, particularly for those accustomed to peace and expecting events to end well.
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